Why the Skydio 2 hype might doom Skydio in the end

The Skydio 2 drone is a feat of incredible software engineering and design, but Skydio might not be around for us to see the third version.

Announced on October 1st, the Skydio 2 was received with a lot of excitement and unlike a lot of drones which over-promise on performance, initial reviews all agreed that it lived up to the hype.

Excited by the prospect of a new alternative to DJI, experienced drone pilots and beginners alike rushed to preorder the Skydio 2, even with the required $100 deposit.

Skydio’s original estimated shipping date of mid-November perfectly lined up for people to receive their new drone for the holidays but also positioned it ahead of the release of DJI’s upcoming Mavic 3.

However, the hype and popularity surrounding the initial release of the Skydio 2 now looks as if it could lead to its demise.

Skydio 2 production taking longer

Scaling up production is one of the hardest things for small tech startups like Skydio.

It’s the reason why so many super popular drone Kickstarter campaigns have resulted in underwhelming products or utter failure.

Original estimates for shipping were mid-November for Batch 1 and January for Batch 2 — and no mention of a Batch 3 or 4.

Now, as Skydio is still working its way through Batch 1 orders in January, its timeline for deliveries has stretched so long that anyone ordering today might not receive the drone till over a year after it was originally announced.

Delayed shipping = more competition

To put Skydio’s production delays in context: when DJI announced its original Mavic Pro back in October of 2016 and subsequently saw deliveries on initial orders stretch into March of the following year, online drone forums were filled with people complaining for months.

Luckily for DJI, the Mavic Pro was far superior to any other drone on the market at that time, so potential buyers had no real option but to wait.

The same is not the case with the Skydio 2.

While its obstacle avoidance and 3D sensing might be ahead of any other current drones DJI, Autel Robotics and several other companies will be releasing new drones in the coming weeks.

These new drones — with improved 6K cameras, better obstacle avoidance, 10+ km range and over 35min flight time — will tempt Skydio customers who are getting tired of waiting.

If DJI, Autel, Parrot or a new brand is able to come close to the 3D terrain mapping of the Skydio 2 this year it could be bad news for the American startup.

Alternatively, we could see Skydio being purchased by another company if they get to a point where they need the extra money and manufacturing experience of a more established company.

The future of Skydio

As I am personally a big fan of Skydio and the Skydio 2, I have my fingers crossed that they will make it through “production hell” and get ahead of their current estimates for shipping dates.

One thing that might be in their favor is that as some of the less committed buyers cancel orders, loyal customers will be moved up in the queue.

Given that they are a small company, however, don’t expect them to release any new drones this year (though we can all hope for a folding Skydio 3) — instead look for them to push software updates that improve the capabilities of the Skydio 2 while they furiously work to fulfill orders.